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Tracking Potential Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

Tracking Potential Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

Plus a busy "People" section with four lawyers moving to new firms.

Bruce Carton
January 21, 2026

People

Jane Norberg, former Chief of the SEC’s Office of the Whistleblower, has joined Ogletree Deakins as a partner in the firm’s Washington, D.C. office.

Brian Faerstein, former AUSA in the C.D. of Cal., has joined Cozen O’Connor as a partner in the firm’s Santa Monica and Los Angeles offices.

Reem Sadik has joined Barnes & Thornburg s a partner in the firm’s Washington, D.C. office.

Glenn Leon, former Chief of the Fraud Section in the DOJ Criminal Division, has joined Jenner & Block as a partner in the firm’s Washington, D.C. office.

Clips ✂️

Race to Unmask Insider Bets in Prediction Markets Is Heating Up

At a time when people are using prediction markets to bet on whether the US will take control of Greenland, the race to identify potential insider trading on the platforms is intensifying.

Unusual Whales, a financial data provider best known for its annual report on congressional stock trading, has launched a tool that scours the prediction platform Polymarket for unusual activity and suspected insider bets.

“We thought prediction markets were almost a required expansion for us because the next big insider trade might not be in Congress, it might not be in the stock market, it may be in prediction markets,” Matt Saincome, who joined the company last year as CEO, said in an interview.

by Bloomberg

👉 Insider trading in prediction markets (my “Song of the Winter”) remains on repeat.

Congressional Stock Trading and Private Insider Trading

I think everyone agrees that members of Congress should not engage in trading based on information they encounter. That is, everyone except members of Congress. There have been several attempts to limit congressional trading. None have made it to the floor for a vote. The current efforts are the Ban Congressional Stock Trading Act sponsored by Senate Democrats and the House Republican sponsored Stop Insider Trading Act.

No, I don’t think either will pass.

by Compliance Building

👉 Post by Doug Cornelius, Chief Compliance Officer at a Beacon Capital Partners, on his Compliance Building blog.

SEC Enforcement in Financial Reporting and Disclosure: Fiscal 2025 Year-End Update

Policing Intentional Misstatements Remains a Priority

Although a small sample size, the seven financial reporting and disclosure cases filed since January 2025 share a common thread: Each allegedly arises from intentionally deceptive disclosures or accounting entries….

Increased Insider Trading Enforcement

Insider trading enforcement has increased under the current administration. These cases comprised 6% to 9% of the SEC’s standalone (not follow-on) docket over the last three fiscal years but approximately 15% of such cases since January. As a form of intentional fraud, insider trading fits within the SEC’s prioritization of cases involving “lying, cheating, or stealing….”

Cross-Border Enforcement

Foreign issuers and their gatekeepers are likely to receive greater scrutiny from the current administration. In September 2025, the SEC formed the Cross-Border Task Force with an initial three-part mission….

Reduced Corporate Financial Sanctions

Corporate financial sanctions in FY25 fell to the lowest level since 2012. We expect this trend to continue because current SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has long criticized corporate penalties as harmful to shareholders and providing little deterrence….

by Jones Day

Podcast

In this episode of the CZ & Friends podcast, Reed Smith partner and former SEC Enforcement lawyer Rebecca Fike “shares how major investigations really unfold, why ‘facts don’t lie,’ and how companies can protect themselves with process, documentation, and thoughtful disclosure controls. She also breaks down the rise of AI-washing, emerging enforcement priorities, and the practical realities of governance.”

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