Iran Conflict Reaches the "Force Majeure Memo Index" for Major Law Firms

Force Majeure Memos: Our Own “Waffle House Index”

FEMA apparently uses an informal metric known as the “Waffle House Index” to determine the severity of a natural disaster. We at TheCorporateCounsel.net have our own informal way of assessing the severity of a legal disaster, and we call it the “Force Majeure Memo Index.” Whenever something bad happens, we don’t worry too much about it unless a major law firm kicks out a client memo (see second blog) citing the potential applicability of contractual force majeure clauses.

Unfortunately, this Faegre Drinker memo on contractual risks for global supply chains arising out of the Iran conflict arrived in my inbox last week, and this excerpt makes it clear that we’ve officially crossed the Rubicon:

Oracle accused of targeting employees with stock options in recent layoffs

A former Oracle employee accused the tech giant of targeting workers “with outstanding stock options” in a recent round of layoffs — as the company reportedly offered its new chief financial officer a juicy $26 million stock package.

A 30-year Oracle veteran recently took to LinkedIn as the Larry Ellison-led company laid off about 700 workers, with thousands of more cuts potentially in the offing.

“Well, after 30+ years at Oracle, I join the 30,000 or so laid off today. Quite a shock. Many of the absolute best colleagues were laid off as well,” Nina Lewis wrote.

“It seems (BUT I DON’T KNOW), maybe, layoffs follow an algorithm of high level individual contributors and mid-level managers – especially those with outstanding stock options,” she continued.

“Not sure what to do next, if anything. Open to ideas,” Lewis concluded with a smile emoticon.

Laid-off employees immediately forfeited their unvested stock, according to Marketwise, though their vested stock remained accessible.

Regulating Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

Parallel DOJ & SEC Enforcement

Enforcement will likely not be limited to the CFTC. The United States Department of Justice (“DOJ”) has also signaled that it will prosecute insider trading on prediction markets. Federal prosecutors have multiple tools at their disposal, including wire fraud and money laundering statutes—both of which Brooklyn prosecutors used last year to charge current and former NBA players in an allegedly widespread, mafia-linked illegal betting scheme.[21] At the February 2026 Securities Enforcement Forum in New York, United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton answered affirmatively to an audience question about whether he anticipated prosecutions relating to the prediction markets.[22] Clayton told the audience “[t]hat’s a crime. Because it’s a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud.”[23] He also provided an example of individuals who conspire to fix a golf game and trade related contracts.[24]

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) has likewise signaled potential enforcement interest. In February 2026, SEC Chair Paul Atkins testified before the Senate Banking Committee that prediction markets are a “huge issue” likely involving “overlapping jurisdiction” among federal agencies.[25] He emphasized that “a security is a security” and that the SEC “ha[s] enough authority” to regulate this space.[26] Consistent with its technology?neutral approach, the SEC could pursue enforcement when event contracts function in substance as securities, security?based swaps, or investment contracts—particularly when trading implicates familiar antifraud and market?abuse theories under the federal securities laws. Depending on the facts, the SEC is likely to rely on Section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5 (including both classical and misappropriation theories of insider trading), as well as manipulation provisions where trading creates false or misleading pricing signals. Tipping risk is especially acute: insiders or employees who disclose issuer-specific or government material nonpublic information to third parties who then trade prediction-market contracts may face liability regardless of whether the tipper personally traded or received a tangible benefit. Each of these agencies will invariably collaborate in their investigation and enforcement efforts.
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Founder of China’s Evergrande pleads guilty to fraud

Hui Ka Yan, the founder of embattled Chinese property developer Evergrande, has pleaded guilty to a number of charges including embezzlement of assets and corporate bribery, according to a statement issued by the court.

Hui expressed remorse during the public hearing on 13 and 14 April, in the city of Shenzhen, according to Chinese state media.

The court said it will announce its verdict on the case at a later date.

His guilty plea marks a pivotal moment in the fallout from Evergrande’s collapse, which has shaken China’s property sector and left investors and domestic banks reeling.

Evergrande was once China’s biggest real estate firm, with a stock market valuation of more than $50bn (£37bn), but collapsed into a debt-driven crisis in 2021 that has unravelled its business.